Friday, September 2, 2011

Do Salary Caps Promote Competition?

One way to compare competitiveness is to look at how many different franchises have wond championships since the adoption of a salary cap vs. before. This metric does not take into account playoff appearances, only championships. Most profesional sports are stratified. What I mean by that is there are 3 strata of teams. The highest strata (or tier) of teams consists of franchises that consistently compete in the postseason. The middle strata is made up of teams that year-in and year-out seem to have a shot to unseat a top tier team and sneak into the playoffs. Then there's the lowest strata of teams which never seem to contend for postseason play. The metric I am using here does not account for the parity between the middle and upper strata of teams and the franchises that dwell in the lowest tier of their respective sport.

In 2005, the NHL adopted a salary cap. In the six seasons since then, six different teams won the Stanley Cup. In the 6 seasons before the salary cap, 5 teams won the Stanley Cup. So in the NHL, the cap has done relatively little to promote competition as measured by championships.

The NFL’s salary cap was instituted in 1994. Since then, 12 different teams have won the Super Bowl out of 18 Super Bowls. In the 18 years before the cap, 7 different teams won the Super Bowl. The NFL's salary cap has clearly promoted competition for Super Bowls.

The NBA’s salary cap went into effect in 1984. Since then, only 7 different teams have won the championship (out of 27 years). In the 27 years before the salary cap, 10 different teams won the championship, showing that the salary cap has done little to promote competition.

While the New York Yankees (who almost always have the highest payroll) have 40 World Series appearances and 27 wins, MLB has been surprisingly competitive for a league without a salary cap. Over the last 10 years, 9 different teams have won the World Series. It is important to note here that the metric of competition is "Different teams winning titles," which does not illustrate the entire picture. Several franchises consistently make the playoffs, while there exists a strata of baseball teams which rarely ever make the playoffs.

The English Premier League has been heavily criticized for what is called the “Big Four Dominance.” Finishing in the top 4 of the EPL qualifies the team to play in the Champions League “and all the riches that come with it.” Since the start of the Premier League in 1992, the Big Four teams (Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, and Manchester United) have dominated the top four spots in the Premier League. Since the league’s inception, the big four have won 18 of 19 championships and have finished in the top four spots 16, 11, 12, and 19 times respectively.

So, does a salary cap guarantee better competition? By the “championship metric,” the results are mixed. There are other ways of measuring competition, but I do not have the tools to assess them. Parity—the gap between the best teams and the worst, and playoff appearances—how many different teams have competed in the playoffs over a given period of time, with weights given to each round, are also good methods for analyzing competition.

Wednesday, December 23, 2009

3 and Outs are Killing Cal

Title says it all.

Warriors Close at Half

The Warriors are only down two to the Hornets at the Half. If they can muster up a 2nd half push, they may pull this out.

You always have to be wary of a CP3 explosion.

Utah is Looking Good

Cal's offensive impotence has caught up with them. The Utes are up 17-14. In the second quarter the Bears have been out gained by over 100 yards.

Luckily the game is still within reach, if Cal can close out the half with a TD or FG.

Cal gets the ball to start the 2nd half, if the Golden Bears can keep within striking distance and make the proper halftime adjustments, they should have a shot at this one.

Utah looks like the better team at this point.

9 Plays 19 Yards

Cal has had three consecutive three and outs.

Starting to look like the Cal Bears who lost to Oregon, USC, Oregon State and Washington. Cal needs to get back on track.

Long Utah Drive Ends in Field Goal

Well, it's official. The Utes have scored 10 straight points. Cal punted to Utah, who drove from their own 24 yard line, down in to the red zone, where Cal forced a field goal. I guess you could call it a win for the Cal D, but the Bears are really going to have to step it up if they're going to hold of the 23rd ranked Utes. Cal had about one solid minuet of dominance, but the Utes have played them even since.

Utah knows how to win. This one looks like it could be headed for a similar finish to the Cal-ASU game.

Riley is going to have to pick up his play if the Bears are going to have success. The Utes are keying into the ground game and Cal can't become one-dimensional.

Utah Retaliates

After scoring 14 points in 11 seconds, the Bears gave up a 60 yard kickoff return to the Utes, setting them up within striking distance.

Utes coach Kyle Wittingham showed why he is is 4-0 in bowl games when Cal forced a fourth down situation and Utah went no-huddle with Eddie Wide III and picked up the first.

Utah punched it in one play later with a pass to the back of the endzone.

Cal challenged the ruling and failed.

14-7 Cal. Important that the Bears stay focused.

An interesting storyline to follow will be Shane Vereen's rushing yards. Cal has a long streak of 1,000 yard rushers, which seemed to be in jeopardy when Jahvid Best went down against Oregon State. However, coming in to the game Vereen was 170 yards away from the 1,000 yard mark. He has 72 on six carries so far. If Shane can muster up 100 more yards, running backs coach Ron Gould would certainly be happy.